I started to ask AI and have stopped doing web searches and watching YouTube in the past few years. AI is more reliable in that it doesn’t evoke emotional reactions. In AI responses, fewer result words stimulate our emotions.
That made me realize a social cycle between when people value skills and when they value information. Let’s talk about it.
How will the future change?
Sometimes, we want to predict future change. Adapting it provides us with abundance. An example is investment. We can acquire things, including skills and equipment, cheaply and use or sell them when they become expensive, not only in the financial market but also in everyday life.
In predicting the future, long-term social cycles are useful. There are differences in human nature, as well as distributions between the majority and the minority. That often creates social cycles.
The majority follows the innovations created by the minority. That often disrupts the balance of supply and demand. In other words, the trend of the majority shows us the next phase of the cycle.
However, we sometimes don’t know many examples of long-term social cycles. That hinders our predictions of the future change.
To understand social cycles, I will introduce an example from the perspective of desiring skills. I named it the skill-desiring cycle. Today, I will introduce it. This cycle might enable you to predict future change and invest appropriately.
Greedy period and fearful period
There is a long-term social cycle that fluctuates between stability and quick results. It is created by people’s desires, as follows:
- Greedy period: When the economic boom continues longer, and the majority are greedy for profit, they tend to earn a lot in a shorter period of time. They prioritize informational value over material value. They flock to the dream jobs of the new era, such as YouTubers and influencers.
- Fearful period: When the economy shrinks, and the majority seek stability, they tend to prioritize stable jobs and solid skills. They are cautious toward information and prioritize material value. They flock to traditionally stable jobs, such as civil servants and teachers.
The stages of value
That creates the following cycles:
- (Informational side) The period of seeking spotlights: Many people try to attract attention. Since getting attention directly affects profit, there are many sensational titles without enough content. It is the time when scams are most popular, to a greater or lesser extent. Many people become greedier and try to earn more money in the short term.
- The period of seeking high-quality content: Many people try to create better informational content. People judge by content.
- The period of seeking reliable evidence: Many people try to obtain reliable evidence amidst uncertainty. This is an intermediate state, in which people are skeptical of information, yet they also have a desire for abundance.
- The period of seeking skills that can be acquired in the middle term: Many people aim for career advancement by studying. They prioritize academic background and stable jobs with higher salaries. They don’t trust the new information.
- (Material side) The period of seeking skills that can be acquired in the long term: Many people cannot trust society. They seek reliability and stability the most. They prioritize securing a stable job through personal connections. This is the time when bribery is most common. Many people fear losing more money and want to secure it in the long term.
The social trend shifts sequentially in stages, like 3 → 2 → 1 → 2 → 3 → 4 → 5… During an era of economic growth, it tends to lean towards the informational side. On the other hand, during an era of long-term decline, people tend to be biased towards the material side. Urban areas tend to be informational, while rural areas are prone to be material. This is a historical, universal tendency.
The current situation
In my opinion, we are currently at the end of (1), the period of seeking spotlights, or the early stage of (2), the period of seeking high-quality content.
From around 2008, people were in the stage of (2), pursuing high-quality content. They developed their skills in creating information.
From around 2015, the stage shifted to (1). People have gained the ability to create and share videos, photos, and content with greater ease. The number of views on the video and tweets determined the revenue. At the same time, people desired more information. That made people begin to want to attract attention. They studied eye-catching short titles and frequently used buzzworthy phrases.
That caused a problem with the internet experience—showing similar results with sensational titles without uniqueness. This was typical, especially in web search.
That led people to judge by the content rather than the eye-catching title. In other words, we returned to the stage of (2) again. Using AI is one form of this stage. People started to eliminate the eye-catching title. This shift is from around 2022.
That shows us the future change. In my opinion, people gradually shift their values toward material aspects. As the recession progresses, they will gradually shift to emphasize reliable evidence, middle-term skills to learn, and long-term skills to live.
In other words, we can start preparing for them now. It would be inefficient to learn attention-grabbing titles. Now would be the time to secure traditional, material skills that require time to master. It would create more profit than focusing on immediate profit in the information industry in the long term.
Conclusion
That is the skill-desiring cycle, which shows us the transition of social values.
In my opinion, people will gradually shift their values from information toward material skills.
This cycle might allow you to predict future change and invest appropriately.
Thank you for reading this article. I hope to see you in the next one.
