In the previous article (this article), I introduced one signal that can happen at the end of the decline. That allows us to identify less competitive fields. Let’s apply it to future prediction.
How the future unfolds
Sometimes, we want to predict future changes. It allows us to prepare for the future. That calms our anxieties and profits us.
If we are empathic and logical, we tend to avoid competition. We may not want to have lunch in crowded places, no matter how famous the place is. Rather, we try to discover a quiet, peaceful place with no people where we can enjoy the meal comfortably.
The same goes for our business. We are not good at crowded, competitive fields. We desire to do something only we can do. In other words, we prefer to make money in places that have already declined and will become popular, rather than in places that are already popular and crowded. Such less competitive places can be advantageous with a bit of creativity.
However, we sometimes don’t know how to identify such a place. Discovering potential places from declining areas requires a unique perspective.
One solution is to understand what happens at the end of the decline cycle. Today, I will explain it with my future prediction. This perspective might show you an effective field to build your business.
The events that happen at the end of the decline
There is a specific phenomenon at the end of decline. The majority of people abandon that industry, and almost no one talks about it anymore, but a few creators will start achieving steady results. That is the time to enter that field.
It often indicates that the decline has hit bottom and cyclical growth has begun.
To make it easier to understand, let’s look at what will happen in the future in the digital creation field.
Now we are in a bubble period of digital creation. Many people believe that information has value and are trying to stand out on the internet. They are passionate about finding, creating, and spreading information, especially on social media.
The phases of decline
In my opinion, the following events would occur in the future.
- The collapse of the digital creation bubble: The global stock market collapse stops investment in the information technology industry. An advertising-based revenue model will no longer be profitable. That triggers the termination of many free internet services. The ownerships of many businesses and apps will be on sale at bargain prices.
- The period of confusion caused by gamblers: Due to the fire sale of information businesses, speculative investors enter the market. They repeatedly buy, sell, and alter their services in the short term. That causes chaos in the internet services and prices. Scam services and information will increase. The government cannot control it immediately. Many people will come to distrust information services.
- The period of focusing on material abundance: People come to trust verified information rather than the spread of information on the internet. In other words, the number of likes and retweets will no longer be effective. That causes social media to lose its meaning. They devolve into tools for personal communication. People start to prioritize creating material abundance over seeking influential power on the internet.
- The period when digital creation is abandoned: Many people focus on material business and stop engaging in digital creation.
- The period of hitting the bottom: It is when some individual digital creators begin to generate noticeable profits, while many people ignore it. That is a signal that the decline has bottomed and started to grow again. It is time for us to return to the digital creation.
Applying new technologies in the long-term declining fields
AI technology will advance regardless of whether there is competition. In other words, even in the period of digital creation’s decline, AI technology will continue to improve.
By the time we enter, just introducing new technology would give us an advantage. In long-term declining industries, creators tend to rely on old equipment. That will become an opportunity for us. We don’t need to rush to catch up with the latest technology right now. It is not too late to enter after reaching the bottom.
The same goes for the businesses that produce material items, such as agriculture, sewing, crafting, and repairing. Now those businesses are in the phase of hitting bottom. Several small-scale creators began to generate noticeable profits without the influential power of the internet. However, many people ignore it. They believe those industries are still declining. They consider those profitable cases exceptional.
In those fields, just adopting the latest technology and sensibility can provide an advantage. Creative people have already moved on to another, more efficient field. Existing producers tend to neglect updating and rely on old equipment.
We can identify new areas of growth around people who are achieving new successes. In these areas, the supply is far lower than demand, so it provides large profits. We judge based on the imbalance between supply and demand instead of popularity. Although it is usually difficult to see through it, hitting bottom is one of the easiest periods to predict.
When we return to digital creation, we will be able to produce individual animations flexibly with the support of generative AI. It will be on a different level compared to the current one. That will be our next fun. If we don’t have a strong desire to express ourselves, we can wait until then.
Conclusion
That is my perspective on what happens at the end of the decline cycle.
In that period, the majority of people abandon that industry, but a few creators will start achieving steady results.
That will be the time to return to digital creation.
This perspective might show you an effective field to build your business now.
Thank you for reading this article. I hope to see you in the next one.
