Recently, I have considered not only the human mind but also the social movements. One example is international conflicts. Let’s discuss it.
Why don’t they buy more affordable items?
Sometimes, we want to know the logic behind people’s inexplicable behavior. People, including society, can act in ways that seem incomprehensible.
One example I was wondering about is the disconnection between nations. In my area, tensions with China are escalating.
From my perspective, I found it inefficient. A recession is a period when independence is required. The more self-sufficient an economic zone is, the more stable it will be. Since China has abundant resources and can be self-sufficient, partnering allows for a stable supply.
In other words, buying goods from China is an affordable and efficient option. It seemed unreasonable to me to buy things from expensive places, especially when prices were going up.
However, I recently realized that I could not say that for sure. During a recession, it would make little difference which side our nations take. Today, I will explain why. This perspective might free you from concerns about conflicts between countries.
An economic boom vs. a recession
In my opinion, society develops its different aspects in times of economic boom and recession, as follows:
- In an economic boom, society collaborates with each other. It means it depends on others and specializes in its roles. Since the environment is stable, people can cooperate easily. That brings prosperity to the whole society.
- In a recession, communities prioritize independence. When the environment changes frequently and drastically, people cannot do as planned. Since the economy is based on planning and stability, people will have no choice but to become more self-sufficient. That makes nations and organizations choose independence, which means disconnection and self-reliance for their survival.
Although collaboration and independence are contradictory, both are fundamental for social animals, like humans.
Many factors can cause a recession, such as climate change, overly high growth expectations, and people’s accumulated frustrations. Since Earth’s environment fluctuates, nothing ever goes exactly as planned. That is why a recession is necessary and inevitable, in my opinion.
The difference between the price and the overall cost
From a broader and historical perspective, cost is not limited to price alone. There can be hidden costs, such as additional time, energy, obligation, and freedom we have to pay in the future.
For example, even if someone offers their goods to us at a lower price, if we are asked to make concessions in another area in return, we need to consider it based on the overall benefit. Efficiency cannot be measured by superficial price alone.
When considering the overall profit and efficiency, we often cannot determine for sure. The impact of those hidden future costs varies from person to person. There are many uncertainties.
That is why I have stopped judging solely on price efficiency.
Deciding reasonably
From my perspective, both society and leaders are deciding without fully understanding the cost and efficiency. It is the same state as when we individually negotiate deals with others. After all, we are deciding without clear answers.
The same goes for nations. Since it is a matter of the economy, the balance of power can change easily.
For example, suppose there are four large forces: the U.S., China, Russia, and the EU. If the U.S. teams up with China, the EU will likely cooperate with Russia. On the other hand, if the U.S. becomes friendly with Russia, the EU will side with China. Old enemies can be resolved quickly when faced with an economic matter.
People are simply looking for an efficient economic zone amid the disconnections. Our nations could also change their stance at any moment. There is neither a right answer nor a side of justice.
That shows us moderate, reasonable options. In a turbulent era that requires independence, survival—eliminating fatality—is demanded more than success. Leaders who demand life or death in a decisive tone are risky. Although they often present easy-to-understand logic, it is always unnatural from the perspective of nature’s laws.
In the long term, a nation will follow long-term cycles of rise and decline. The U.S. has entered a period of decline as China becomes the center of the world. Then, India will emerge as the next global leader after China. After that, the largest economic boom will occur in the African continent. That would be a change that will occur over the next 50 to 200 years, from my current historical perspective.
The same goes for investment. A recession is a period that people who can reasonably worry about the future become wealthy.
Conclusion
That is why it makes little difference which side our nations take during a recession.
After all, people are deciding without clear answers.
In this situation, those who can choose moderate, reasonable options will become wealthy.
This perspective might free you from concerns about conflicts between nations.
Thank you for reading this article. I hope to see you in the next one.
